Predictive breeding in maize during the last 90 years

This article traces the 90-yr history and speculates on future applications of predictive breeding in maize (Zea mays L.). Predictive started 1930s when superior double-cross hybrids were identified based mean four nonparental single crosses. The advent recurrent selection 1940s led to methods predict next cycle selection. shift single-cross 1960s necessitated their performance, genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) was developed 1994 for predicting performance yield other agronomic traits. In 1990s, rapid with molecular markers use multiple regression individual plants undergoing After Meuwissen, Hayes, Goddard published landmark genomewide 2001, shifted from fixed marker effects ridge Bayesian models random effects. Subsequent research showed that GBLUP are equivalent a trait is controlled by many small-effect loci distributed throughout genome. Two trends have strongly persisted last 90 yr leverage resources extraction information relatives. 2020s will continue expand terms what being predicted used. Because predictions rely having good phenotypic data developing black-box models, phenotyping remain cornerstone breeding.